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Newsletter August  2006

 Economy


Overview of monthly data

YTL-Rates

1.8. 31.8.

Change in %

YTL per Euro 1.9062 1.8810 -1.3
YTL per USD 1.5026 1.4753  -1.8

 

 

 

 

Stock exchange index

36,101.89 36,897.20 1.02

 

 

 

 

Inflation in %

Monthly inflation

Annual inflation

 

Producer prices -0.75 12.32

 

Consumer prices  -0.44  10.26

 

 

Export

August 

September 2005 - August 2006

 
Export (in million USD) 6.99 80.7  
 
Economic Growth Rates (%)
  1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter Yearly
2000 4.2 5.4 7.2 7.8 6.3
2001 -3.3 -12.3 -9.1 -12.3 -9.5
2002 0.6 10.4 8.0 11.8 7.9
2003 7.4 3.6 5.6 7.2 5.9
2004 13.9 15.7 5.7 6.6 9.9
2005 7.5 4.7 8.0 10.02 7.6
2006 6.3        

Unemployment rate descended to 8.8%
The unemployment rate has dropped to the lowest level since January 2005. According to the data provided by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), the unemployment rate decreased to 8.8 % in May within the period of April, May and June. The unemployment rate was 9.2% within the same period of the previous year and 9.9% in April. The rate of participation in the work force decreased to 48.6% in May and the number of unemployed was 2.2 million people with a decrease of 79,000. The number of the employed has increased by 139,000 compared to the same period of the last year and reached 22.86 million. The unemployment rate in urban areas has become 11 % with a decrease of 0.9% and in rural areas is 5.7 % with an increase of 0.2 %. Non-agriculture unemployment rate has dropped to 11.5 % with a decrease of 1%, compared to the same period of the previous year. 28.4% of those employed have been employed in agriculture, 18.7 % in industry, 5.8 % in construction and 47.1% in the services sector. Compared to the same period of the previous year, employment in agriculture sector has decreased by 3.6 percent and employment in services sector increased by 2.9 percent. 

Incentives were beneficial for poor provinces
“Incentives for poor provinces,” passed in February 2004, the coverage of which has been expanded despite the objections of IMF, has started to yield positive results. In the first 6 months of this year, the amount of investments subject to incentives in 49 provinces, covered by law, has increased by 53%. In terms of investments subject to incentives, Kahramanmaras has the lead with an investment of 333.4 million YTL, Duzce is second with 286.7 million YTL, Elazig is third with 186.6 million YTL and Osmaniye is fourth with 164.5 million YTL. There are no investments with incentive certificates for Hakkari and Kilis, which are under also the coverage of the law.

The trade volume with United State is expected to increase USD 20 billion
Ugur Terzioglu, the New Chairman of Turkish-American Businessmen Association (TABA), underlined that trade volume with the United States would be increased to 20 billion USD, from  10 billion USD and called on Turkish businessmen to take advantage of this opportunity. It is reported that sectors such as textiles, spare parts and industry, would be particularly considered in the September talks to be held in six states in the United States. Terzioglu stated that more than 35 businessmen from the United States would attend the meetings and that they wanted to purchase Turkish goods, sell goods to Turkey and make investments in Turkey.

2 million Euro support by UNDP to SMEs in Southeastern Anatolia Project Region
The United Nations Development Program has allocated a donation credit of a total of 2 million Euro to be used for SME projects in Adiyaman, Batman, Diyarbakir, Kilis, Mardin, Siirt, Sanliurfa, Sirnak. With this fund, financial support will be provided for such SMEs to decrease their input costs and to increase their sales, exports and employment capacities.

The sales profitability of the companies decreased by 1.4 points
The Istanbul Chamber of Commerce has published its "500 Great Industrial Establishments 2005 Report." The aggregate sales of the 500 largest institutions have reached 148.3 billion YTL, with an increase of 9.3% compared to the previous year. 9.57% of this amount, corresponding to 14.2 billion YTL, has been achieved by TUPRAS, the leader of the list. After the assignment of Erdemir to OYAK and Tupras to Koc, only Elektrik Uretim AS from the public sector could enter the top ten in fourth place. Toyota has realized the highest export, which amounts to 2.3 billionUSD. The average sales profitability of the companies, which was 6.1% in 2004 decreased to 4.7% in 2005, the lowest value since 2001.

Consumer goods imports have reached 18 billion USD
The sudden increase in imported consumption during the last 2 years in which the exchange rates remained low continued in the first half of this year. Considering the developments in the first half of the year, it is calculated that consumer goods imports for the year will reach 18 billion USD. An increase of 31% has been recorded in the importation of consumer goods in the first half of this year. The importation of consumer goods has increased by 1.9 billion USD, compared to the same period of the previous year.

2006

2005

Increase (%)

Investment Goods

10,490.8 9,280,4 13.0

Raw Materials

46,500.0 39,447.8 17.9

Consumer Goods

8,000.4 6,101.4 31.1

Other

204.8 264.7 -22.6

TOTAL

65,196.0 55,094.4 18.3

 

Politics

 

Israel: Turkey must participate in peace force
Abdullah Gul, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister, has met Amir Peretz, the Minister of Defense of Israel, in Jerusalem to consider the United Nations Peace Force to be deployed in Lebanon. Stating that Hezbollah shall never be located along the border, “We request the Minister to send the Turkish Army to the region to participate in the international force.” After the meeting Mr. Gul said, “In the case that a contribution can be made to the stability, in the case that peace can be secured and Turkey can make a contribution, the issue will be considered with due care and due action is being taken."

Turkey sends troops to Lebanon
The bill, concerning deployment of troops in Lebanon, which has been an issue of concern for the public for a long time, has been considered by the assembly and accepted. In the voting, there were 340 votes in favor of and 192 votes against the bill. The opposition criticized, claiming that the bill came into the agenda, after the United States pushed the button in the Middle East, and Turkey would become engaged in the new Middle East project, announced by Condelezza Rice. Minister Abdullah Gul made a defense, stating that the action to be performed and not to be performed was clearly defined in the bill. The number of troops is not specified in the bill, which has a duration of 1 year.

Further Topics

 

Oil search in Black Sea
Hope for the oil and natural gas reserves beneath Black Sea attracts related firms to the region. TPAO, which explores for reserves with BP in the Eastern Black Sea and Toreador Stratic in Western Black Sea, has signed an agreement with Brazilian Petrobras company recently. Nestor Cunat Cervero, the director of Petrobas Company, said, "We are hopeful with respect to the Black Sea. We have eliminated the foreign dependency of Brazil with the oil we produced. Until now, we have succeeded in all our explorations. We will provide all support required to Turkey for this issue."

50 million Euro is expected from F1
Concerning August 25-27, during which Turkey hosted Formula 1 for the second time, the contributions of Formula 1 to the economy have been considered in a report titled “Formula 1 Economy Turkey Istanbul Grand Prix,” prepared by Deloitte. According to the report, 2 billion people in the world are expected to watch the event on television and as a result this will play a considerable role in the promotion of Turkey. It is also expected that 130,000 people will attend the race on Sunday. According to Deloitte, foreign audience numbers will reach 45,000 and 5,000 foreign and domestic VIP audience will watch the race from the Paddock Club. A total of 25,000 people from outside of Istanbul and 55,000 people from Istanbul will attend the races. The total attendance during the race week is expected to reach 240,000 people. It is expected that during the races the audience will spend a total of 43 million Euro, with a ticket revenue of 13.3 million Euro and accommodation expenditures, totaling 18.3 million Euro. Foreign spectators are likely to spend approximately 26.7 million Euro. (15.7 million Euro to hotels, 5.6 million Euro for tickets, 4.3 million Euro for catering) Together with the expenditures of 11 teams attending Formula 1 as racers, which will amount to 7 million Euro, the total expenditures in the organization will reach 50 million Euro.

Dogus Otomotive will sell Bentley cars
In a statement sent to the stock exchange by Dogus Otomotiv, which deals with automobile brands such as Audi, Seat, Skoda and Porsche, it is reported that a decision has been taken to sign an agreement of goodwill and then a distribution agreement, concerning the provision of marketing, sale and post-sale services of Bentley products in Turkey by Dogus Otomotiv. In the statement, it was reported that the agreement was signed yesterday.

Automotive Sector targets export of 13 billion USD 
The Turkish automotive supply industry will attend Frankfurt Automechanica Fair, which is one of the most important meetings of the world in its field, with 198 automotive spare parts producers showing their own products. Turkish automotive supply industry firms account for 70% of the exports to EU countries and will hold bilateral talks with European producers and investors. It is expected that current automotive exports of 11.7 billion USD will reach 13 billion USD this year.

Suzuki will produce automobiles in Turkey
Turkey, which has lost 1.2 billion USD automotive investment of South Korean Hyundai to the Czech Republic, is now on the agenda of Suzuki. Suzuki, a giant of the Japanese automotive industry, now plans to establish a production facility in Turkey in accordance with its global expansion targets. Suzuki has commenced preliminary studies for a facility, with a capacity of at least 100,000 cars. It is reported that Suzuki will make its final decision after studying the incentives and the foundation could be laid in early 2007. Aiming to be effective in the EU market, this investment of Suzuki will increase the pace of Turkey, which is on its way to becoming the 7th greatest producer in this market.

Gaziantep gives importance to R&D
Nejat Kocer, the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Gaziantep Chamber of Industry, said, “A fast change has occurred in the product range of Gaziantep industry, with the investments made in the R&D departments of our industrialists." Kocer added, “With this fast change, I believe that Gaziantep will be given the title "Innovative City," within the next few years."

Vestel Purchased Finlux
Vestel, which has a market share of 26% in the European TV market, has purchased Finlux, the most popular electronics brand of Scandinavian countries and Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. It is expected to increase the share of Finlux, which has operated under the structure of Nokia, in Scandinavian Countries to 15 %. Vestel, which has exported the first Finlux televisions, produced in its facilities in Manisa, will offer its product portfolio, consisting of TV, plasma, TFT, DVD recorder and player, satellite receiver and other digital boxes, to the European Market under the Finlux trademark.

Barclay’s Capital in Turkey
Now British Barclay’s capital is participating in the Turkish banking sector, which attracts the attention of the foreigners. Barclay’s Capital, the investment banking section of Barclays PLC company with a volume of approximately £ 1 trillion, has appointed Murat Talayhan as the president of the Turkish Branch.

Tourism cities will be established
Turkey has taken steps for the establishment of tourism cities, similar to the ones in Mallorca Island of Spain. The allocation tender process, for Cesme-Alacati tourism city, will commence on August 15. The persons, who will make investments within the framework of the projects, will be provided low interest loan, cheap electricity and water and privileges. It is expected that 90 billion USD investment will be made in the tourism cities, to be established. Oger Group, the Japanese, Russians and Spanish are interested in the projects.

50 million USD investment from Ata-Sancak
The Ata-Sancak partnership, which has parted with Koc Holding (who hired Acipayam Agricultural Establishment) now affiliated with the General Directorate of Agricultural Establishments for a term of 30 years, has laid the foundation of the large husbandry facility costing 50 million USD, on August 12. Saying that they would establish the greatest facility in Europe and sixth largest one in the world, the General Manager of Atasancak Acipayam Tarim Isletmesi San.Tic.A.S., Lutfi Kasli, also announced that they will both supply studs animals in Turkey and also export such animals.

Sales of motorcycles increased from 50,000 to 200,000 in 3 years
Motorcycle sales in Turkey increased in recent years, due to their convenience in traffic, low fuel consumption and convenient bank loans. Ferruh Tanay, the chairman of Motorcycle Industry Association said that the motorcycle sales had reached 200,000 and the figure was expected to reach 300,000 this year. The domestic revenue of the sector approached USD 1 billion.

 

FMCon News

 

Since the number of our team has been increasing recently, we have decided to move to a bigger office by the end of September. Our address will be changed to:

Köybasi Cad. Keresteci Z. Sok. No 28 34464 Yeniköy Istanbul

We will be updating you, in case our telephone numbers change.

Foreign Market Consulting new office

 

SOME ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF TURKEY
    Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Monthly inflation producer prices 
(%)
2004 2.63 1.64 2.1 2.65 -0.03 -1.05 -1.52 0.79 1.85 3.23 0.75 0.13
2005 -0.41 0.11 1.26 1.21 0.2 -0.48 -0.74 1.04 0.78 0.68 -0.95 -0.04
2006 1.96 0.26 0.25

 1.94

 2.77

 4.02

 0.86

         
Annual inflation producer prices 
(%)
2004 10.76 9.14 7.97 8.91 9.56 10.53 9.44 10.52 12.5 15.48 14.4 13.84
2005 10.7 10.58 11.33 10.17 5.59 4.25 4.26 4.32 4.38 2.57 1.6 2.66
2006 5.11 5.26 4.21

 4.96

 7.66

 12.52

 14.34

         
Monthly inflation consumer prices 
(%)
2004 0.74 0.55 0.89 0.59 0.38 -0.13 0.22 0.58 0.94 2.22 1.54 0.45
2005 0.55 0.02 0.26 0.71 0.92 0.1 -0.57 0.85 1.02 1.79 1.4 0.42
2006 0.75 0.22 0.27

 1.34

 1.88

 0.34

0.85 

         
Annual inflation consumer prices 
(%)
2004 16.22 14.28 11.83 10.18 8.88 8.93 9.57 10.04 9 9.86 9.79 9.32
2005 9.23 8.69 7.94 8.18 8.7 8.95 7.82 7.91 7.99 7.52 7.61 7.72
2006 7.93 8.15 8.16

 8.83

 9.86

 10.12

11.69 

         
Export (Monthly)
(in Mil. USD)
2004 4619 3665 5218 5072 517 5284 5632 4707 5656 5867 5734 6541
2005 4997 5652 6592 6128 5977 6034 5763 5552 6814 6772 5942 7243
2006 5101 6020

 7390

6420

 6949

7582 

           
Import (Monthly) 
(in Mil. USD)
2004 633 6139 8452 7932 7991 8468 8728 7883 8487 8088 8568 10474
2005 7212 8323 10196 9595 9812 9867 9596 10271 10361 10075 9652 11601
2006 8138 9796

 11424

 10954

 12312

11798 

           
Trade deficit (Monthly) (in Mil. USD)
2004 -1711 -2474 -3234 -286 -2821 -3184 -3096 -3176 -2831 -2221 -2834 -3933
2005 -2215 -2671 -3604 -3467 -3835 -3833 -3833 -4719 -3547 -3303 -3710 -4358
2006 -3041 -3792

 -4097

 -5200

 -5363

 -4216

           
Export (Annual)
 (in Mil. USD)
2004 48339 49079 50389 51780 53109 54598 55994 56873 58414 59457 61221 63167
2005 63543 65530 66904 67960 68767 69522 69653 70499 71657 72562 72770 73472
2006 73572 73924

 74659

 74285

 76009  77552            
Import (Annual) 
(in Mil. USD)
2004 71244 73198 75894 78615 81073 83814 86275 88184 90465 91977 95300 97540
2005 98422 100606 102350 104013 105834 107233 108101 110489 112363 114350 115434 116561
2006 117487 118960  120188

 121547

125025 126876             
Trade deficit (Annual)
 (in Mil. USD)
2004 -22905 -24119 -25505 -26835 -27964 -29216 -30281 -31311 -32051 -32520 -34079 -34373
2005 -34879 -35076 -35446 -36053 -37067 -37711 -38448 -39990 -40706 -41788 -42664 -43089
2006 -43915 -45036

 -47262

 -47488  -49016  -49324            
Interest rate for domestic borrowing 
(%)
2004 25.52 23.99 24.44 23.15 28.82 27.5 26.32 24.85 25.42 22.79 22.88 23.12
2005 19.43 17.58 17.01 17.17 17.31 15.61 16.02 16.07 14.84 14.55 14.1 14.19
2006 14.02 13.97 13.89

 13.88

  14.36

 18.11

 21.51

         
Index for real exchange rate 
(1995=100) 
2004 147 149.1 154.2 152.5 138.2 137.5 140.5 140.1 138.1 139.9 141.3 143.2
2005 150.7 156 154.7 151.8 153.3 159.5 163 160.9 162.2 165.7 170.8 171.3
2006 172.1 174.6 172.9

171.9 

 158.7

 142.2  147.1          
Monthly average exchange rate for USD (YTL) 2004 1.3434 1.3238 1.3159 1.3514 1.5013 1.4887 1.4482 1.4674 1.4983 1.4847 1.4454