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Newsletter July  2006

 Economy


Overview of monthly data

YTL-Rates

1.7. 31.7.

Change in %

YTL per Euro 2.0059 1.9062 -5.0
YTL per USD 1.5773 1.5026  -4.7

 

 

 

 

Stock exchange index

35,453.31 36,101.89 1.8

 

 

 

 

Inflation in %

Monthly inflation

Annual inflation

 

Producer prices 0.86 14.34

 

Consumer prices  0.85  11.69

 

(Dünya/DIE 1.7./31.7.06/haber3.com)

Foreign trade figures

Export

July 

August 2005 - July 2006

 
Export (in million USD) 6.9 79.3  
(Dünya TIM data, 2.8.06)
 
 

June

 
In million USD 2005 2006 Increae in %
Export 6,039 7,582 25.6
Import 9,947 11,798 18.6
Deficit -3,909 -4,216 7.9
(TÜIK data)

Ambitious 3-year macro targets from the government
The medium term fiscal plan accepted by the Higher Planning Council aims to attain a growth rate of over 7% each year for the next 3 year period covering 2007-2009. The plan will cut the interest burden of the budget to half by the end of this period and connected to this, emphasize personnel and social expenditures. Budgetary expenditures estimated at 174.3 billion YTL this year are expected to reach 205.7 billion YTL in 2009 whereas the estimated revenues 160.3 billion YTL are expected to reach 210.1 billion YTL in 2009. The budget, expected to produce a deficit of 8.8 billion in 2007 and 2.8 billion YTL in 2008, is estimated to produce a surplus of 4.4 billion YTL in 2009.
(Dünya 19.07.2006) 

Stock exchange exceeded 35,000 with the encouragement of FED
US FED Chairman Bernanke issued a statement saying that inflation is under control and that diminishing expectations of a parallel interest hike changed the direction towards buying in the ÝMKB, as in other stock exchanges. The composite stock index closed the first session at 35,113 points with an increase of 1,559 points. At the first session, where the stocks appreciated by 4.65% on average, the total transaction volume was 719.6 million YTL. Meanwhile the dollar rate fell to 1,5530 YTL, its lowest levels in recent history. (Milliyet 20.07.2006)

Exports broke a record in June with 7.7 billion USD
Exports in June came close to 7.7 billion USD, increasing 28.42% with respect to the same period in the previous year. TÝM President Oguz Satici in his statement mentioned that in the first 6 months of this year 39.905 billion USD exports were realized. In June this amounted to 7.685 billion USD. The previous year’s exports as of the end of June equaled 78.032 billion USD with an increase of 11.56%.
(Dünya 03.07.2006)

Sector

Annual (USD)

Change (%)

AGRICULTURE

9,789,163

20.83

INDUSTRY

66,512,471

10.03

-Agriculture based products

6,887,583

7.46

-Chemical materials

7,796,104

34.75

-Industrial products

51,828,782

7.41

Ready-to-wear clothing

13,573,846

-0.34

Transportation vehicles and side industry

14,112,651

11.36

Electricity and electronics

7,685,138

17.09

Machinery and spare parts

2,861,970

18.70

Iron and non-iron metals

3,401,586

24.31

Iron and steel products

7,030,626

-3.28

Cement and earth products

2,011,933

3.16

Precious metals

1,112,972

11.18

Other industrial products

38,062

24.91

MINING

1,730,764

24.26

TOTAL

78,032,397

11.56

 

6.3% economic growth
It was announced last weekend by TUIK that the economy grew by 6.3% in the first quarter of 2006. Change ratios of national income calculated quarterly by TUIK are as follows.
(Dünya 03.07.2006)

Growth Rates (%)

 

1st quarter

2nd quarter

3rd quarter

4th quarter

Annual

2000

4.2

5.4

7.2

7.8

6.3

2001

-3.3

-12.3

-9.1

-12.3

-9.5

2002

0.6

10.4

8.0

11.8

7.9

2003

7.4

3.6

5.6

7.2

5.9

2004

13.9

15.7

5.7

6.6

9.9

2005

7.5

4.7

8.0

10.02

7.6

2006

6.3

 

 

 

 

Unemployment fell to 9.9%
The unemployment rate continued its seasonal downward trend to 9.9% in April having fallen 1 point with respect to the previous month. The unemployment rate was 12.2% in cities and 6.5% in rural areas whereas the number of unemployed fell by 3000 people.

In thousands of people

April 2005

April 2006

Non-institutional civil population

71,382

72,406

Population in the age group 15 and above

50,585

51,542

Work force

24,432

24,608

-Employed

21,993

22,172

-Unemployed

2,439

2,436

Participation rate to workforce (%)

48.3

47.7

Employment rate (%)

43.5

43.0

Unemployment rate (%)

10.0

9.9

-Non-agricultural unemployment rate (%)

13.4

12.5

-Adolescent unemployment rate (%)

18.7

17.8

-Underemployment (%)

3.3

3.9

- Adolescent underemployment rate (%)

4.6

4.4

Those not included in the work force

26,153

26,935

Turkey is the safest haven in the region
The president of International Investors Association (YASED), Saban Erdikler, stated that developments in the Middle East will not affect the foreign capital inflow to Turkey in the mid term, saying “Turkey is a safe haven in the region”. Erdikler also mentioned that if a minimum annual level of 10 billion dollars of investment is attained by 2009, there will be an additional growth of 1.5-2% in the economy. In the YASED report “Toward a foreign capital strategy for Turkey”, prepared by Assistant Professor, Kamil Yilmaz, it was emphasized that micro economic reforms have to be completed as soon as possible if Turkey is to maintain the success it has achieved in attracting foreign capital in recent years. The report pointed out that the presidency of the Privatization Administration needs to be converted into an Investment Promotion Agency, the judicial system has to operate faster and political influences have to be removed from regulatory bodies. A foreign capital investment of 15 billion USD was prophesized for the years 2010-2014.
(Dünya 18.07.2006)

Ministry of Finance announced budgetary figures of the first 6 months of 2006
The central management budget had a surplus of 2.4 billion YTL in the first half of this year. Total budgetary expenditures realized were 81.6 billion YTL in January-June period while budgetary revenues were 84 billion YTL. In this period 58.7 billion YTL were non-interest expenditures.
(Dünya 18.07.2006)

Expenditures other than interest (Thousand YTL)

Jan – June 2005

Jan – June 2006

Change ratio (%)

Personnel expenses

15,729,012

18,524,889

17.8

Social security state premium contributions

2,087,291

2,384,676

14.2

Purchase of goods and services

4,126,554

6,786,213

64.5

Current transfers

16,381,686

24,913,480

52.1

Capital expenditures

2,427,623

3,028,001

24.7

Capital transfers

490,681

852,014

73.6

Lending

732,432

2,233,676

205.0

Total

41,975,379

58,722,949

39.9

The breakdown of tax revenues disclosed by the Ministry can be seen in the table below.

Tax types (Thousand YTL)

Amount

Proportional share (%)

Taxes imposed upon income and earnings

19,121,921

28.99

VAT

20,004,797

30.32

ÖTV (Special Consumption Tax)

17,688,988

26.81

Property taxes

1,518,141

2.30

Other taxes

7,641,196

11.58

Total

65,975,043

100.00

 

System based on indirect taxes

Taxes

2006           (Thousand YTL)

2005           (Thousand YTL)

Change(%)

Share 2006

Direct taxes

18,230,180

15,930,212

14.4

33.2

Income tax

10,376,863

9,204,318

12.7

18.9

Corporation tax

6,427,244

5,529,475

16.2

11.7

Property taxes

1,426,073

1,196,419

19.2

2.6

Indirect taxes

36,592,253

29,698,051

23.2

66.7

VAT

6,448,125

5,298,576

21.7

11.8

ÖTV

14,503,443

11,952,072

21.3

26.42

BSMV (Banking and Insurance Transaction Tax

1,017,815

811,677

25.4

1.9

Tax on games of chance

153,834

123,028

25.0

0.3

ÖTV

1,474,368

1,150,226

28.2

2.7

Customs taxes

779,037

606,363

28.5

1.4

VAT collected in imports

9,400,465

7,463,067

26.0

17.1

Other foreign trade

17,123

29,388

-41.7

0.0

Stamp duty

1,262,505

1,007,742

25.3

2.3

Imposts

1,535,538

1,255,912

22.3

2.8

Other

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