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Newsletter May  2006

 Economy


Overview of monthly data

YTL-Rates

1.5. 31.5.

Change in %

YTL per Euro

1.6586 1.9843 19.6

YTL per USD

1.3218 1.5442  16.8

 

 

 

 

Stock exchange index

43,880.43 37,860.80 -13.7

 

 

 

 

Inflation in %

Monthly inflation

Annual inflation

 

Producer prices

2.77 7.66

 

Consumer prices

 1.88  9.86

 

(Dünya/DIE 4.5./1.5./3.6.06)

Foreign trade figures

Export

April 

Mai 2005 - April 2006

 
Export (in Billion USD) 7.3 76.4  
(Dünya, 2.6.06)
 

März

 
In Million USD 2005 2006 Increae in %
Export 6,128 5,754 -6.1
Import 9,595 10,954 14.2
Deficit -3,467 -5,200 50.0
(www.die.gov.tr)

Stock Index dropped by %13.7, Euro exceeded 2.00 YTL
The sales reaction initiated by foreigners last week due to reduction of fund flow to developing markets caused a sharp increase in F/X prices
. Sales by foreigners exiting YTL based investment instruments such as shares and bonds and heading towards the purchase of dollar amounted to 5.5 billion dollars in just one week. Stock index devalued by %13.7 in a month and declined to its lowest level since November 2005. Dollar quotations in Interbank market rose to 1.58 YTL and reached its highest level since May 2003. Dollar/YTL rate fell down later to 1.56 level. Euro rate increased to 2.0360 YTL and experienced its historical peak. The interest rates also reached the top level of the year with 17.15%. (Dünya 16./23.5./1.6.2006)

Banks are resistant against fluctuations
The President of BDDK Tevfik Bilgin said “Our banks are more efficient than never before and resistant against fluctuations. Therefore we are very confident”. Bilgin also stated that the open position fell to 7 billion from 9 billion dollars the previous week.
(Dünya 27.05.2006)

The Central Bank emphasized its sovereignty and raised interest rates by 1.75 %
The appointment of Durmus Yilmaz as the Chairman of the Central Bank pleased the business world. The business world made very positive comments about the appointment pointing out that Yilmaz has been working for 26 years at the Central Bank and that an ambiguity has disappeared with this appointment. The Chairman of the Central Bank Para
Durmus Yilmaz in his one sentence statement about the fluctuations in money markets at the end of May said, “exchange regime is determined with the government however its execution is directly under our bank’s authority and responsibility”. The Central Bank opted to intervene in the rapid increase in dollar rate by stopping foreign exchange purchase tenders instead of directly entering the market. The experts and business world supported the decision of the Central Bank by stating that the mobility in the market will soon come to an end. However, the Central Bank reacted to the movements in the exchange rate and increase in inflation by increasing the interest rates by 1.75 points i.e. from 13.25% to 15% on June 8. (Dünya 20.4./16./25.05./8.6.2006)

IMF pointed to the increase in expenditures, foreign trade deficit and the most expensive gas in the world; growth is expected to be 6%
In the World Economic Outlook report published by the IMF, Turkey ’s current high deficit was indicated as the main risk for the economy. It was also stated that the most expensive gas in the world is sold in Turkey and the highest fuel tax is being levied in Turkey as well. The IMF also commented on the increase in budgetary expenditures in May and asked for a precautionary package amounting to 4.5 billion YTL. Accordingly, the health expenditures will be curtailed and the unspent items in the budget will be transferred to the deficit. It is expected that the growth figure for 2006 of 5% will be 6% by a one point increase and the ratio of current deficit to GDP determined as 5.8% will reach 7%.
(Dünya 20.4./23.05.2006)

Confidence for Turkey increased
“We are now ranking 13th in the world investment map by jumping 16 places”

In the “Foreign Investor Confidence Index”, carried out by US investment consultancy firm AT Kearney which reveals the country choices of investors, Turkey at 29th rank last year ascended 16 ranks and is now at 13. Turkey , ranking 7th among the most trusted countries of European investors, did not enter the confidence ranking of US investors. The investors stated that Turkish market became 19% more optimistic in the last year.
(Dünya 09.05.2006)

38.7 billion YTL tax evasion has occurred in 2005
The tax examinations of inspection units of Ministry of Finance in 2005 revealed that for each 100 YTL earning being taxed in the country 119 YTL has not been paid, meaning 54.23% of real earnings have been not been declared. The warnings of tax offices from 2005 onwards did also not work and there was an increase of 8.5% in tax loss and evasion. (Dünya 2.5.06)

The increase in unemployed figures continues
The unemployment rate as of January was 11.8%. The number of employed in January increased by 19,000 whereas the number of unemployed increased by 102,000. Official figure of unemployed increased from 2,697,000 to 2,799,000. The number of people employed in agriculture decreased by 1,085,000 where the number of people employed in other sectors increased by 1,104,000. (Dünya 26.4.06)

The board of a JSC can be comprised of a single member 
According to the draft of Turkish Commercial Code discussed at TBMM Justice Sub-Committee the board of joint stock companies can be comprised of a single member. According to the adopted articles of the draft, the existing provision stating that the board should comprise of at least 3 members will be abandoned and through harmonization with EU legislation, boards with just 1 member will be enabled.
(Dünya 13.4.06)

 

Politics

 

Negotiations with EU start on June 12
According to “EU News” internet site an important decision was taken during the meeting of EU Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Austria. Sources providing information to the internet site said the final decision will be taken on June 12 at the Council Meeting of EU Ministers of Foreign Affairs to convene in Luxembourg.  If decision is taken actual negotiations will start under the “science and research” heading during the Turkey -EU Accession Council Meeting to be held on the same day.
(Dünya 30.05.2006)

Ecevit’s condition is critical
Former Prime Minister and Honorary Chairman of DSP Bülent Ecevit has been operated on at Gülhane Military Medicine Academy (GATA) after suffering from apoplexy. Currently hospitalized at GATA, Ecevit’s condition is still serious.
(Dünya 20.05.2006)

Germany ’s support will continue
Prime Minister Erdogan had a meeting with German Chancellor Merkel at the Prime Ministry building which lasted one hour. Speaking during the joint press conference held after the meeting Erdogan stated that the meeting covered political, commercial, economical, cultural and regional issues. Erdogan mentioned the issue with highest priority in his agenda is the relations with the EU. He said Germany had always been on Turkey ’s side and that he believed Germany ’s support would continue. Furthermore, he explained that Germany is one of Turkey ’s most significant partners in terms of politics, culture and economy and also the most significant investor country. Meanwhile Merkel emphasized that she fully agreed with Erdogan with respect to EU related and international current issues and that Turkey contributes to inter-cultural dialogue.
(Dünya 27.05.2006)

Further Topics

 

AB approved TSE’s CE mark
The auditors of the European Accreditation Institution have approved TSE providing the CE mark and that they will submit their report to European Commission. Following this announcement of TSE by EU Commission as an accredited institution the business world will be relieved of the burden to go to European countries for obtaining the CE mark.
(Dünya 20.05.2006)

German DZ Bank is in Turkey
German finance group DZ opened a representative office in Turkey. Turkey representative Ata Murat Kudat stated that the opening of an office in Istanbul is just the first step and DZ Bank’s activities in Turkey can be diversified to include establishing, acquiring and participating in a bank. (Dünya 2.5.06)

Action plan for tourism sector
The downfall experienced in the tourism sector in the past 3 months has activated both the ministry and the sector. A four-phased action plan has been formed for stimulating tourism during the meeting the ministry and sector held in tourism week. The Capital of Culture saved the day for tourism in the first quarter. The number of tourists decreased by 39% in Antalya in the first quarter and increased by 11.6% in Istanbul. (Dünya 17.4.06)

Vestel Beyaz (active in White Goods) raised 124 million USD
Vestel Beyaz Esya earned public offering revenue of 124 million dollars. Of 52 million shares offered to public 36.4 million were sold to 25 corporate investors resident abroad. The remaining 15.6 million shares were allocated to small individual investors in Turkey. The public offering brought in 124 million dollars for Vestel. (Dünya 15.4.06)

47% of the Turkish private banks are directed by banks belong to foreigners  
Foreign capital is in a position to directly control the management of 31% of the Turkish banking system. This ratio is 46.90% in private sector banks. The agreements of Oyakbank and Sekerbank with foreigners will increase the control by foreigners in private sector to 51%.  As no domestic bidder is expected, the privatization of Halkbank and Ziraat will increase the share of foreigners. Influence of foreigners in the system will exceed 70%. Foreigners have at least 50% influence in 7 out of 13 largest banks in the system.
(Dünya 01.06.2006)

Denizbank sold to Dexia
75% of Denizbank was sold to Dexia with Belgium-French capital for 2,437 million dollars. So Zorlu Holding left the banking sector. Dexia Member of Board Xavier De Walgue said that they have confidence in Turkey and the Turkish market.
(Dünya 01.06.2006)

SOME ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF TURKEY
    Jan Feb März April Mai Juni Juli Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez
Monthly inflation producer prices 
(%)
2004 2.63 1.64 2.1 2.65 -0.03 -1.05 -1.52 0.79 1.85 3.23 0.75 0.13
2005 -0.41 0.11 1.26 1.21 0.2 -0.48 -0.74 1.04 0.78 0.68 -0.95 -0.04
2006 1.96 0.26 0.25

 1.94

               
Annual inflation producer prices 
(%)
2004 10.76 9.14 7.97 8.91 9.56 10.53 9.44 10.52 12.5 15.48 14.4 13.84
2005 10.7 10.58 11.33 10.17 5.59 4.25 4.26 4.32 4.38 2.57 1.6 2.66
2006 5.11 5.26 4.21

 4.96

               
Monthly inflation consumer prices 
(%)
2004 0.74 0.55 0.89 0.59 0.38 -0.13 0.22 0.58 0.94 2.22 1.54 0.45
2005 0.55 0.02 0.26 0.71 0.92 0.1 -0.57 0.85 1.02 1.79 1.4 0.42
2006 0.75 0.22 0.27

 1.34

               
Annual inflation consumer prices 
(%)
2004 16.22 14.28 11.83 10.18 8.88 8.93 9.57 10.04 9 9.86 9.79 9.32
2005 9.23 8.69 7.94 8.18 8.7 8.95 7.82 7.91 7.99 7.52 7.61 7.72
2006 7.93 8.15 8.16

 8.83

               
Export (Monthly)
(in Mil. USD)
2004 4619 3665 5218 5072 517 5284 5632 4707 5656 5867 5734 6541
2005 4997 5652 6592 6128 5977 6034 5763 5552 6814 6772 5938 7194
2006 5077 5932

 6975

                 
Import (Monthly) 
(in Mil. USD)
2004 633 6139 8452 7932 7991 8468 8728 7883 8487 8088 8568 10474
2005 7212 8323 10196 9595 9812 9867 9596 10271 10361 10069 9651 11599
2006 8138 9796

 11189

                 
Trade deficit (Monthly) (in Mil. USD)
2004 -1711 -2474 -3234 -286 -2821 -3184 -3096 -3176 -2831 -2221 -2834 -3933
2005 -2215 -2671 -3604 -3467 -3835 -3833 -3833 -4719 -3547 -3297 -3713 -4405
2006 -3061 -3864

 -4214

                 
Export (Annual)
 (in Mil. USD)
2004 48339 49079 50389 51780 53109 54598 55994 56873 58414 59457 61221 63167
2005 63543 65530 66904 67960 68767 69517 69648 70493 71651 72556 72755 73413
2006 73493 73773

 74156

                 
Import (Annual) 
(in Mil. USD)
2004 71244 73198 75894 78615 81073 83814 86275 88184 90465 91977 95300 97540
2005 98422 100606 102350 104013 105834 107233 108101 110489 112362 114344 115427 116552
2006 117478 118951  119.944                  
Trade deficit (Annual)
 (in Mil. USD)
2004 -22905 -24119 -25505 -26835 -27964 -29216 -30281 -31311 -32051 -32520 -34079 -34373
2005 -34879 -35076 -35446 -36053 -37067 -37716 -38453 -39996 -40712 -41788 -42667 -43149
2006 -43985 -45178

 -45788

                 
Interest rate for domestic borrowing 
(%)